Percentage Points of Difference in Last Home Series

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May 1

4:00 PM

Softball

vs RV Grand Canyon

May 2

12:00 PM

Softball

vs RV Grand Canyon

May 6

Softball

vs Mountain West Conference

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	Runs R	Hits H	Errors E
Grand Canyon	0	3	0	0	3	2	2	10	14	0
Colorado State	0	0	3	0	0	2	0	5	8	0

Grand Canyon

Colorado State

For Jailey Wilson and Abby Edwards, hitting a home run happens around 9% of the time during conference play.

But when the stakes were higher than they had been all season — tournament positioning hanging in the balance, a matchup with the No. 1 team in the Mountain West and the final home series of the year — both swings landed like far rarer outcomes. Wilson's three-run shot in the third and Edwards' solo blast in the sixth were the kind of moments which can flip percentages in a hurry.

The numbers leaned heavily against Colorado State entering Thursday night against Grand Canyon. Most signs pointed toward a lopsided result. But by the time the final out settled into a Lopes glove, the Rams had turned what looked like a mismatch on paper into a fight, falling 10-5 after forcing GCU to earn every run.

Even in a series against a tough opponent, anything can happen. So the Rams threw everything but the kitchen sink at the Lopes, searching for any edge, any variable which might shift the formula.

One of those variables was Giselle Bentley, the graduating senior, getting the start in the circle in Game 1 of the series. Early trouble loaded the bases in the second, the kind of sequence which can send win percentages plummeting. Instead, Bentley steadied herself and escaped.

"Giselle got out of that second inning, bases loaded, and I just thought, okay, she's good," coach Jen Fisher said. "She's solid, and I thought that was, I think, maybe a younger version of ourselves. We maybe could have broken in that instance, but she stayed tough. She trusted Coach Taylor, who was calling the pitches. She trusted her and was like, just put it where I call it. Put it where I call it."

And as defense feeds into offense, Wilson started off firing. Her homer accounted for three RBI and only the Rams' second hit of the night, but it erased an early deficit and reset the board at 3-3. In one swing, CSU turned long odds into level ground.

The surge prompted GCU to make a fourth-inning pitching change, replacing Natalie Fritz with Oakley Vickers. The sophomore offered a new look, another adjustment for CSU hitters to solve. But the Rams never allowed the game to settle into the runaway many expected.

"I think we just, we were very aggressive going towards balls and our pitchers also did a great job with their offense," Lindsey Hinson said. "And so just selling out for everything and going for it all."

On defense, shifts at second and shortstop began to click. Jac Smith, who had recently made herself at home at shortstop in the past few weeks, looked increasingly comfortable as the Lopes continued to test the infield.

Because despite the final score, the Rams were still working against the numbers. GCU finished with 14 hits to CSU's eight. Against a lineup like that, run prevention becomes about maximizing every out and cashing in every opportunity.

"We've been a little bit tentative, and so I thought what really showed is that we were trusting our process and trusting our swings," Fisher said. "We're not scared of you. We're going to hold our ground. It's our batter's box. It's your plate but it's our batter's box. Abby was super tough. Autumn (Rutherford) took one off the hand, and those are always kind of game changers. Those turn into runs quite often. These are the runs created on that."

Edwards felt that toughness behind the plate. With usual pitcher Bradie Poteet-Herrera at third base, Edwards handled catching duties and absorbed a ball to the head early in the box before wearing several more off the legs behind the plate later in the game. Still, she stayed in and later added insurance with her home run.

Rutherford dealt with her own bruises after taking one off the arm, then grinding through a 12-pitch at-bat in the fifth. She did not score that inning, but long battles like that can tax pitchers and improve the odds of damage later. In the sixth, CSU broke through for two more runs.

The Rams' sheer persistence carried them through the two-and-a-half-hour contest.

"I think it's important to know we can compete and we're ready to compete with them and just carrying that feeling into the next series," Hinson said.

If Thursday was any indication, the rest of the weekend may be decided on the smallest margins — a ground ball finding grass, a diving stop stealing a hit, a 2-2 pitch missing by inches instead of catching the corner. Hinson delivered one of those swings in probability herself, charging in to record the final out on Trinity Martin in the seventh.

"It's always those type of plays like we had high pressure situations, and someone makes a cool play like that. It just makes you want to keep going," Wilson said. "It's really contagious."

With two games still left in the series, Colorado State did not get the result it wanted, but it changed the perception surrounding the matchup. The rankings, projections and expectations all suggested a rout. Instead, the Rams showed that even when the odds favor one side, the series will be decided in the moments statistics can't quite measure.

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